ELECTION PROFILE: U.S. Congressional District 2 - (R) Jenkins v. (D) Wakefield v. (L) Clemmons

Our next election profile will be centered on the U.S. Congressional race of the 2nd District in Kansas.  Below is the map of the district.

The 2nd District is considered one of the most naturally competitive U.S. Congressional Districts in Kansas.  Ironically, midterm years seem to favor Democrats in this district.  The district now also includes Lawrence, the bluest city in the state (as well as the most Libertarian), which could make for an interesting race.

THE CANDIDATES

The race features a matchup of incumbent Congresswoman (R) Lynn Jenkins, squaring off with challengers (D) Margie Wakefield and (L) Chris Clemmons.  Lynn Jenkins is not an incredibly popular incumbent, but she may not need to be to hold off this year's opponents.  Lynn Jenkins's 'conservative' primary opponent, Josh Tucker (Pittsburg), managed to generate 30% of the primary vote with virtually no financial support by often criticizing Jenkins for not being sufficiently "conservative".  It apparently made Jenkins somewhat nervous as she had to resort to wheeling former Senator and Republican Presidential nominee, Bob Dole, out for a few primary campaign commercials.  Since then, however, Jenkins seems to have remained quite low key after winning the primary.

(R) Lynn Jenkins (Incumbent) - Congresswoman Jenkins has held political office for the past 15 years.  Before being elected to Congress as a member of the United States House of Representatives in 2008, Lynn Jenkins served as Kansas State Treasurer (from 2003-2008), District 20 Kansas State Senator (1999-2001) and District 52 Kansas State Representative (2001-2003).  She has been a Certified Public Account for over 20 years and has become a fairly high ranking member of the Republican Party in her 6 years of tenure.  She is on the Ways and Means Committee and is a member of the Tea Party caucus.  Often you can see Congresswoman Jenkins standing with Speaker of the House, John Boehner.

(D) Margie Wakefield - Margie Wakefield has been an attorney located in Lawrence since graduating from the University of Kansas School of Law in 1985.  Her primary practice area has been focused on family law.  Before attending law school, Wakefield worked for Senator Bob Dole in his Topeka Office, as a constituent services aide.  Like Jenkins, Wakefield has a strong sense of service, evident from her diverse community organizational involvement and party leadership roles.

(L) Chris Clemmons - Mr. Clemmons, as his students refer to him (probably), is a Libertarian candidate from Leavenworth, KS who teaches Life Science at Rosedale Middle School in Kansas City, KS.  He's a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu enthusiast (for all you martial arts fans out there) and is a self-described, "outdoorsman".  Why he's running?  We'll let his own words answer that question:

"While it was never my intention to enter the political arena, my interest in politics has built quickly over the last few years as I watch an ever increasing divide in Congress grow and money becoming the motivating factor behind most of the decisions made.  Our constitutional rights are secretly being stripped away, our environment is in ever increasing jeopardy, and our farmers are being run over by big corporations.  With all that’s happening in the world, I’m ready to take a stand and represent my state so that we can build a better future for the coming generations of Americans."

All three candidates represent a unique choice, and all three are educated and informed individuals.  This district gets to choose between a CPA, a Family-Law Attorney, and a Science Teacher.  We should all only be so lucky.  A Republican with a high disapproval rating and a 'conservative' base unhappy with the Republican's leadership with a viable Libertarian candidate.  Put that together in the most moderate district now encompassing the most "liberal" city in the state, it wouldn't be the craziest thing on election night to see a very interesting outcome.

THE ISSUES

1.  NATIONAL DEBT:  When addressing "Fiscal Responsibility" (R) Lynn Jenkins states she will "pledge to continue opposing wasteful earmarks, working to eliminate government programs with no constitutional justification, and rooting out government corruption and waste."  Without actually pointing to what any of those are. (She does say she wants to get rid of the EPA, but that doesn't seem to be very popular or reasonable in a state that heavily relies on the quality of farm land.)  She will only look to cut spending in order to address the debt crisis.

(L) Chris Clemmons is much more specific when addressing the issue.  Looking at his website, he too favors a path of cutting, but when you add up his proposed cuts you see how easy it would be.  Unlike Republicans, who recently support government spending cuts, Clemmons is also willing to cut military expenditures (by 1/2 to 350 billion dollars, which is still significantly more in spending on military than the next country), as well as defunding the NSA (and forcing a spy agency consolidation), abolishing multiple bureaucratic agencies (USDA, FDA, and DoE), ending the War on Drugs, and addressing the overcrowded prison problem America is facing.  Clemmons idea is bold, and will be perceived as somewhat radical.  Many Kansans agree with some of these cuts, but strongly disagree on others.

(D) Margie Wakefield may have an opinion on the issue, and if she does we would sure like for someone on her campaign to let us know what that is.  After sifting through her website and Facebook page, we were unable to find anything on the subject.

WHO WINS THE ISSUE:
Depends:  Some Independents are adamantly against military cuts, some against bureaucratic cuts such as the Food and Drug Administration, the Department of Education, and the Environmental Protection Agency.  Most Independents believe that the solution to fixing the debt problem involves cutting spending and raising revenues by closing tax loopholes that many corporations continue to exploit.  Clemmons is willing to cut a little out of everything, Jenkins is only willing to cut anything that isn't a subsidy (for oil) or a part of the 'Military Industrial Complex'.  Wakefield, well can only assume.  She claims she wants to work across the isle, if that is the case, then she probably believes in spending cuts and revenue increases (either by directly taxing the top or by closing tax loopholes).



2.  EDUCATION:  All three candidates believe we should get away from standardized tests, with Wakefield and Clemmons specifically stating that it is the most important thing a state/country can provide to promote a healthy economy and free society.  Clemmons and Jenkins stress local control, while Wakefield stresses absolute affordability.  Wakefield, goes on to argue for the importance high qualified teachers as a measure for fostering that high quality education.  Clemmons is also a big proponent of fiscal transparency, especially for schools that accept federal funding and Student Loan Reform for Higher Education.

WHO WINS THE ISSUE:
It's a close one.  (1) Clemmons, (2) Wakefield, (3) Jenkins.  They're all very close and I would say Wakefield and Clemmons are neck and neck.  However, Clemmons's understanding of Student Loan Reform and stressing of fiscal transparency are very important issues that narrowly push him ahead.



3.  HEALTHCARE:  Jenkins takes the typical Republican repeal and replace approach.  The sooner Congress can move beyond that approach the better off we will be.  Wakefield takes the position that the law is probably not going to be repealed and that since it is already law, Congress should work to make the law better and more effective.  I can't find Clemmons's stance on Healthcare, but we probably don't have to guess very hard considering he's a Libertarian.  However, we will not presume considering he sometimes take positions on issues that aren't stereotypically 'Libertarian'.

WHO WINS THE ISSUE:
Wakefield (for now).



4.  ECONOMY & JOBS:  Wakefield and Clemmons support a fair tax system, and Jenkins supports tax reform.  All understand that the economy grows when capital is in more hands.  Jenkins only seems to think that more tax cuts are what is needed to continue economic growth and higher paying jobs, where as Wakefield supports a tax system that explicitly incentivizes small businesses and not big corporations.  Clemmons supports "small government budgets, fair tax rates, and union labor.  All three put more money in the pockets of our citizens which will eventually lead to a strong economy with better paying jobs." 

WHO WINS THE ISSUE:
Clemmons.  Anytime you have a Libertarian supporting union labor, you know you have a unique pragmatic candidate on your hands.  Wakefield and Jenkins are too general on the issue.



5.  ENVIRONMENT & ENERGY:  I'm not even sure how to articulate the differences here, because there certainly are some.  Read them for yourselves: Lynn Jenkins, Margie Wakefield, and Chris Clemmons. 

WHO WINS THE ISSUE:
Which issue?  The Keystone Pipeline:  Lynn Jenkins.  Yet, do not be confused with thinking the Pipeline will lower the price of Gas.  Oil companies are engaged in collusion and everyone knows it.  They have no interest in lowering gas prices.  But, from our understanding, the Keystone Pipeline is actually environmentally more safe than the current form of transportation, freight.  However,  Republicans in Congress won't issue a study to see how vulnerable the pipeline would be to terrorist attacks.  Wakefield, doesn't discuss the issue and Clemmons wants to block it.  Yet, he is a science teacher, he probably knows more about it than us.

Renewable Energy:  Margie Wakefield.  Lynn Jenkins and Margie Wakefield are both advocates for wind energy.  Wakefield stresses the potential benefit for Kansas jobs than Jenkins does and Clemmons doesn't have an expressed opinion on the matter (although we assume he supports it, given his environmental concerns).

Environment:  Clemmons.  Just read his material.

CONCLUSION:

If you're an Independent in the 2nd Congressional District you actually have a very tough decision to make.  It's hard to tell who is the most moderate or independent versus who is the most ideological.  On paper positions, we like Chris Clemmons.  In personal experience, we like Lynn Jenkins.  If you had to combine the two, we like Margie Wakefield, but that's not an endorsement.  It's close.  Hopefully, they'll include Mr. Clemmons in future debates and the press will give him some spotlight.

It wouldn't be unfathomable for Clemmons to grab a significant share of the disgruntled 'conservatives'.  He's logical and up their alley.  Many of these new young 'conservatives' are more principled than their party gives them credit for.  Jenkins winning the Republican nomination simply won't be enough for some of them. Also, if more people become aware of him in the next 30 days, he may be primed to not only capitalize on a 10-15% (modest prediction) Republican support, get out Libertarians, but also sway some Independents who have been burned by GOP rhetoric and Democrat ineptitude.  

The straight ticket Republicans will vote for Jenkins, just as the straight ticket Democrats will vote for Wakefield.  Wakefield will need to get out the Democrat vote and also hope that a strong majority of Independents break her way.  Jenkins would be wise not to loop herself into the Brownback, Roberts, Kobach mess and take the odds that history is on her side.

Pittsburg and Lawrence will most likely break for Wakefield, while Jenkins cleans up most of Southeast and Northern rural-Kansas.  Topeka, could be the deciding factor, as well as how the principled 'conservatives' of Pittsburg and Lawrence (as well as the rest of the district) vote.  Your typical issues such as abortion, guns, and same-sex marriage don't seem to be a driving force in this district's midterm (not that it won't influence how people vote).

UPDATE:

Since we posted our profile of the race, a few things have changed:

1. Lynn Jenkins is terrified of a "down ticket effect".  National leaders are concerned that the discontent with the Three Headed Republican Monster (Brownback, Kobach, Roberts) will trickle down the ticket and knock her off.
2. All of the races have become increasingly toxic, with Republican aligned groups Hell-bent on labeling anyone who disagrees with them a "liberal".  Interestingly, they haven't learned from their mistakes.  Their "conservative" party-purification is exactly what got them into this mess.

A few things haven't changed:

1. Lynn Jenkins and Margie Wakefield continue to give us reasons not to vote for each other.  That isn't new.
2. The campaigns continue to accuse one another of campaign violations.  Again, that isn't new either.
3. Both are continuing to ignore and respect the candidacy of Libertarian Chris Clemmons.

So what's our update?  We've decided to throw our pick out there.  But since we're still open to changing our pick, we'll go ahead and rank the candidates.

1. (L) Chris Clemmons
2. Write In Candidates
3. Tie - (D) Margie Wakefield and (R) Lynn Jenkins

Wakefield has an advantage at this stage over Jenkins as far as "class" is concerned, but we're not convinced that the only reason she has that advantage is because she has less money.  Yet, it's a bit ridiculous that Jenkins isn't running on her record, rather than running against he opposition.  We'll go ahead and Wakefield the 2.9 slot and Lynn Jenkins the 3.1.  (But since we rounded to the nearest tenth, they'll both get the 3.)  Also, with Clemmons attending forums neither candidate is willing to show because it's 'beneath' them and then also refusing to invite him to others...eh...we don't like that.  We're also convinced that Clemmons is going to work more for his constituents and not what party bosses in Washington and Kansas tell him to do.